THE INS AND OUTS OF DEPORTATION UNDER PRESIDENT TRUMP
Short 1.5 ish sentence summary of explainer
Attendees of RNC hold signs advocating for mass deportation.
Bryan Snyder/Reuters
Last updated February 25, 2025 xx:xx (EST)
Background
Donald Trump’s third campaign for the presidency had several memorable features including the promise of “largest deportation operation in the history of the United States.” The President and his staff reported that they would begin new immigration policy enforcement on “day one”. We present a review of past administrations’ deportation policies, the challenges associated with Trump's current policy goals, and the logistic reality of deportation as described in executive orders so far.
Context is Crucial: Trump 1.0 & Biden
Trump's first term was marked by a number of controversial policies: the Migrant Protection Protocols (“Remain in Mexico”), Title 42, “the Muslim Ban”, intentional family separations, and more. Despite harsh immigration rhetoric, Trump was less successful in deporting migrants than the Obama Administration. Over 1.5 million deportees is no small amount, but there are explanations as to why Trump’s removal plan was less successful than promised. For one, many undocumented immigrants today are more likely to be traveling to the US from further afield and in family units. Due to their country of origin oftentimes not being Mexico, the deportation process is clouded by refusals of repatriations. Furthermore, the removal system grows increasingly overwhelmed by immigration, resulting in poor enforcement even after the issue of removal notices. A third important factor that reduced the number of deportations is the increasing lack of cooperation between local law enforcement agencies and federal immigration authorities.
When Biden took office in January of 2021, he began his term by implementing policies designed to reverse Trump-era restrictions on immigration. His administration underlined goals to modernize the entry process and adopt a more “humane” approach. As the administration pulled back on border security and took time to revise US immigration policy, the country experienced record numbers of migrant encounters along the southern border. In step with his softer immigration policy, Biden began his term by deporting fewer people from the US. The graph below shows deportation numbers from Obama, Trump I, and Biden’s first three years in office.
Biden began his term focusing specifically on detaining migrants at the border vs pursuing them in the US interior. As his administration continued to receive criticism from the American public on border security, Biden ramped up deportation efforts. In 2024, Biden deported 271,000 illegal immigrants, by far the highest tally he reached in one year of his presidency. While he came into office with promises to revise immigration policy, the Biden administration ultimately reverted back to the deportation tradition of the past fifteen years.
In the News
Following his “day one” promises from the campaign trail, President Trump has quickly made moves to begin deporting illegal immigrants from major US cities. This policy marks a departure from Biden-era initiatives that focused intensively on border arrests. On January 26th and 27th, ICE conducted deportation raids in Chicago and New York, respectively. Other agencies involved in the raids include: the FBI, the US Marshals, the ATF, and the Drug Enforcement Administration. While the administration says they are prioritizing migrants with criminal records, they demonstrated during the first week they are arresting anyone who is in the country illegally. Of the roughly 1,200 arrests made on Janurary 26th, 613 were considered “criminal arrests”. The Trump administration plans to conduct similar raids in three major US cities per week. While federal agents are fanning out across the US interior to make these arrests, local governments are not universally on board with Trump’s efforts from the Oval Office. Chicago mayor Brandon Johnson continues to speak out against Trump’s tough immigration policies; he tweeted last Sunday that Chicago police were not involved with any ICE activity. Other cities like LA, Philadelphia, Phoenix, San Diego, Denver, Miami, Atlanta, Seattle, and even San Juan, Puerto Rico reported deportation raids.
While the number of removals may seem small, this policy may be better understood as a fear campaign designed to promote self deportation and deter illegal entry in the first place.
How Does This Work?
While Trump is sure to authorize raids that will include many individuals with contested legal status in the US, the system is already so overwhelmed. ICE currently detains immigrants at its processing centers, at privately operated detention facilities, and contracted local prisons and jails. Finding capacity to hold the 11 million people Trump wants to deport seems nearly impossible; federal and state detention centers have essentially been operating at capacity for years. With that being said, there are zero facilities geared toward detention of immigrant families, who account for roughly one-third of arrivals on the US southern border.
On January 29th, 2025, the media reported that the Trump Administration plans to construct a new migrant detention center in Guantanamo Bay, which would hold as many as 30,000 people. This is still not nearly enough space to hold the 11-20 million immigrants (Trump has mentioned several estimates within this range) the president hopes to deport. Guantanamo Bay would essentially act as a holding space for migrants to be taken by plane to their home-country, hinging on the unlikely hope that these countries will be willing to cooperate and welcome them back. Deportations, as they exist in an international legal framework, are bilateral. Each country must agree on the deportation and any country is entitled to refusing a deportation flight from a foreign nation. Countries with which the US does not have easy relations, meaning removal can be slow or require alternative measures, are referred to as recalcitrant countries. Among them are Venezuela, Cuba, Brazil, and Nicaragua, but more may be added to the lists as Trump indiscriminately threatens tariffs and strains relations. Officials of Colombia and Honduras have both publicly reconsidered their positions and willingness to cooperate with the US.
Based on the ambitions of Trump’s deportation policies, US immigration regulatory services require funding. A recently passed congressional bill, the Laken Riley Act, is a key element of the new immigration stance, and would require at least $26.9 billion to expand immigrant detention facilities by 110,000 beds, according to a DHS memo. Deportation plans will require fast-paced construction and supply of planes and loading areas stocked with basic necessities, as well as a careful approach of regional diplomacy.